{"id":549,"date":"2024-11-14T21:39:44","date_gmt":"2024-11-15T01:39:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wonpress.ca\/?p=549"},"modified":"2024-11-14T21:39:44","modified_gmt":"2024-11-15T01:39:44","slug":"%e5%a4%a9%e6%89%8d%e4%b9%9f%e4%bc%9a%e6%9c%89%e5%a4%b1%e8%af%af%ef%bc%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wonpress.ca\/?p=549","title":{"rendered":"\u5929\u624d\u4e5f\u4f1a\u6709\u5931\u8bef\uff01"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management\u662f\u7f57\u6770\u00b7\u6d1b\u6e29\u65af\u5766(Roger Lowenstein)\u6240\u5199\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u4e66\u7c4d\uff0c\u8bb2\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u7f8e\u56fd\u8457\u540d\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u201c\u957f\u671f\u8d44\u672c\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8\u201d(Long-Term Capital Management\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0LTCM)\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\u4e0e\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u4e66\u4e2d\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u8fd9\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u77ed\u77ed\u51e0\u5e74\u5185\uff0c\u4ece\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u7684\u201c\u5929\u624d\u201d\u6295\u8d44\u56e2\u961f\u53d1\u5c55\u4e3a\u6fd2\u4e34\u7834\u4ea7\u3001\u88ab\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7d27\u6025\u62ef\u6551\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u6d1b\u6e29\u65af\u5766\u7684\u5199\u4f5c\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u6784\u7684\u5931\u5229\uff0c\u66f4\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u8fc7\u5206\u4f9d\u8d56\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u521b\u65b0\u6240\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u81f4\u547d\u5371\u673a\u3002\u968f\u7740\u5f53\u4e0b\u5317\u7f8e\u80a1\u5e02\u521b\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4ece\u4e1a\u8005\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8b66\u793a\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

LTCM\u7684\u521b\u7acb\u56e2\u961f\u53ef\u8c13\u201c\u5929\u624d\u835f\u8403\u201d\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e24\u4f4d\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u9ed8\u987f(Robert C. Merton)\u548c\u8212\u5c14\u8328(Myron Scholes)\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u57fa\u4e8e\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u5957\u5229\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4ee5\u671f\u5728\u6709\u9650\u98ce\u9669\u4e0b\u83b7\u53d6\u9ad8\u989d\u56de\u62a5\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f9d\u8d56\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e00\u5ea6\u8ba9LTCM\u4ee5\u6bcf\u5e74\u8d85\u8fc740%\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u53d6\u5f97\u6210\u529f\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u4e66\u4e2d\u6240\u63cf\u7ed8\u7684\uff0c\u8fc7\u5206\u4fe1\u4efb\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u4f4e\u4f30\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u4e0e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u9762\u4e34\u4e9a\u6d32\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u548c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7b49\u7a81\u53d1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u65f6\u63aa\u624b\u4e0d\u53ca\u3002\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u5c61\u521b\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u548c\u91cf\u5316\u6295\u8d44\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e5f\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u7981\u8ba9\u4eba\u8054\u60f3\u5230LTCM\u5f53\u5e74\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u5883\u51b5\uff1a\u6a21\u578b\u6216\u8bb8\u80fd\u89e3\u91ca\u8fc7\u53bb\uff0c\u4f46\u672a\u5fc5\u80fd\u591f\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u66f4\u65e0\u6cd5\u89c4\u907f\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u548c\u7a81\u53d1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

LTCM\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u5728\u4e8e\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f7f\u7528\u6760\u6746\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u501f\u5165\u5de8\u989d\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u500d\u6570\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u4e00\u65e6\u5e02\u573a\u65b9\u5411\u9006\u8f6c\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u9ad8\u6760\u6746\u7ed3\u6784\u4fbf\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5de8\u989d\u635f\u5931\u3002\u4e66\u4e2d\u8be6\u7ec6\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86LTCM\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u52a0\u5267\u65f6\u6025\u5267\u4e8f\u635f\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u5bfb\u6c42\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u63f4\u52a9\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6559\u8bad\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5f53\u4e0b\u5317\u7f8e\u80a1\u5e02\u540c\u6837\u5177\u6709\u73b0\u5b9e\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u968f\u7740\u5229\u7387\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u88ab\u8feb\u8f6c\u5411\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u6760\u6746\u4f7f\u7528\u9010\u6e10\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6760\u6746\u7684\u6269\u5f20\u4f7f\u5f97\u5e02\u573a\u7ed3\u6784\u53d8\u5f97\u8106\u5f31\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u51b5\u51fa\u73b0\u53d8\u52a8\uff0c\u6760\u6746\u7684\u53cd\u566c\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5371\u673a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e66\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u4e3b\u9898\u662fLTCM\u5728\u5dc5\u5cf0\u65f6\u671f\u5982\u4f55\u53d8\u5f97\u81ea\u6ee1\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u6709\u201c\u4e0d\u53ef\u52a8\u6447\u201d\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u3002LTCM\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u88ab\u5927\u91cf\u6a21\u4eff\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u5176\u7b56\u7565\u548c\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u76f2\u76ee\u4fe1\u4efb\u8ba9\u5e02\u573a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8d8b\u540c\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u98ce\u9669\u7206\u53d1\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u96c6\u4f53\u64a4\u8d44\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u67af\u7aed\u3002\u6d1b\u6e29\u65af\u5766\u901a\u8fc7\u4e66\u4e2d\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u601d\u7ef4\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u975e\u7406\u6027\uff0c\u6df1\u523b\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u672c\u8d28\uff1a\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u6210\u529f\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u88ab\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u65f6\uff0c\u5931\u8d25\u98ce\u9669\u5c06\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5267\u3002\u53cd\u89c2\u4eca\u65e5\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u5728\u9ad8\u79d1\u6280\u516c\u53f8\u80a1\u7968\u4e0d\u65ad\u4e0a\u6da8\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u666e\u904d\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u76f2\u4ece\u7684\u5fc3\u6001\u548c\u201c\u987a\u52bf\u800c\u4e3a\u201d\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u884c\u4e3a\u8ba9\u5e02\u573a\u5145\u6ee1\u9690\u60a3\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u8f6c\u53d8\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fc5\u901f\u4ece\u9ad8\u70b9\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Genius Failed\u4e00\u4e66\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u4e00\u90e8\u91d1\u878d\u5386\u53f2\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u4e00\u5219\u8b66\u4e16\u5bd3\u8a00\u3002LTCM\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u63d0\u9192\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u5e76\u975e\u53ea\u662f\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5806\u79ef\uff0c\u5b83\u8fd8\u53d7\u5230\u4eba\u6027\u3001\u60c5\u7eea\u548c\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6df1\u523b\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6d1b\u6e29\u65af\u5766\u5728\u4e66\u4e2d\u6697\u793a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u201c\u5929\u624d\u201d\u7684\u76f2\u76ee\u5d07\u62dc\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u707e\u96be\u7684\u6e90\u5934\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u62e5\u6709\u6700\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u6700\u6770\u51fa\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u4f9d\u7136\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u5ffd\u89c6\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u5f53\u4eca\u5317\u7f8e\u80a1\u5e02\u5c61\u521b\u65b0\u9ad8\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u663e\u5f97\u5c24\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7b97\u6cd5\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u524d\u666f\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u9010\u6e10\u9ad8\u6da8\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u5bf9\u201c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e0b\u8dcc\u201d\u6216\u201c\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0a\u6da8\u201d\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u76f2\u76ee\u8ffd\u6367\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0cLTCM\u7684\u6559\u8bad\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u548c\u7a81\u53d1\u98ce\u9669\u65e0\u5904\u4e0d\u5728\uff0c\u800c\u4efb\u4f55\u770b\u4f3c\u201c\u7a33\u5b9a\u201d\u7684\u5c40\u9762\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e00\u591c\u4e4b\u95f4\u53d1\u751f\u9006\u8f6c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u9762\u5bf9\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u9ad8\u5e02\u503c\u65f6\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u4fdd\u6301\u51b7\u9759\uff0c\u8b66\u60d5\u6760\u6746\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u6027\u975e\u7406\u6027\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u548c\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u4e5f\u5e94\u8003\u8651\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u8fc7\u70ed\u65f6\u671f\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u9632\u548c\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u91cd\u8e48LTCM\u7684\u8986\u8f99\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Genius Failed\u4e00\u4e66\u4e0d\u4ec5\u63ed\u9732\u4e86LTCM\u7684\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u8fd8\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u201c\u4eba\u6027\u201d\u7684\u4e00\u9762\u2014\u2014\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u8d2a\u5a6a\u3001\u81ea\u6ee1\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u5bf9\u201c\u5929\u624d\u201d\u7684\u76f2\u4ece\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u635f\u5931\u3002\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u65e2\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u521b\u65b0\u7684\u53cd\u601d\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u9884\u8b66\u3002\u5728\u5f53\u524d\u5317\u7f8e\u80a1\u5e02\u521b\u65b0\u9ad8\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u4ece\u4e1a\u8005\u4ee5\u53ca\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u4e0d\u59a8\u4eceLTCM\u7684\u5174\u8870\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u8b66\u793a\uff1a\u5e02\u573a\u4ece\u6765\u4e0d\u662f\u65e0\u61c8\u53ef\u51fb\u7684\uff0c\u552f\u6709\u5728\u8c28\u614e\u3001\u7406\u6027\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u4e2d\u627e\u5230\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u624d\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5e94\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management\u662f\u7f57\u6770\u00b7\u6d1b\u6e29\u65af\u5766(Roger Lowenstein)\u6240\u5199\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u4e66\u7c4d\uff0c\u8bb2\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u7f8e\u56fd\u8457\u540d\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u201c\u957f\u671f\u8d44\u672c\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8\u201d(Long-Term Capital Management\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0LTCM)\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\u4e0e\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u4e66\u4e2d\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u8fd9\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u77ed\u77ed\u51e0\u5e74\u5185\uff0c\u4ece\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u7684…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":405,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[17],"class_list":["post-549","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bookreview","tag-17"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wonpress.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/549","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wonpress.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wonpress.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wonpress.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wonpress.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=549"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/wonpress.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/549\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":551,"href":"https:\/\/wonpress.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/549\/revisions\/551"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wonpress.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/405"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wonpress.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=549"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wonpress.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=549"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wonpress.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=549"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}